The SAGA family of funds has a track record of more than 10 years. Since inception they have been UCITS IV funds domiciled in Luxembourg.

Banque Pictet has from day one been the funds administrator and custodian. In particular, it is responsible for calculating the NAV, for the trades executions and the risk assessment.

Throughout the period the Funds have maintained an uninterrupted policy of weekly subscription and redemption.

 

SAGA Market Outlook

A Monthly Commentary by Gabriel V. Safdié

01.12.2016

TRUMPONOMICS

1. To everybody's surprise, the election of Donald Trump generated quite a lot of optimism in the US with a rise of 5.4 % for the Dow Jones Industrial index and 2.6 % for the Nasdaq Composite. 2. However, the other markets did not follow the move : +5.1 % for the Nikkei in yen but -3.3 % in usd; -0.20 % for both the Dax Index and the Euro Stoxx50; -4.4 % for the MSCI Emerging Markets index in usd.Read more...

17.11.2016

L’ILLUSION DE LIQUIDITÉ

1. As was the case with the boreal summer, September and October were fairly quiet, except for a few scattered storms. 2. Indeed, the world economy remains at an insufficient growth level despite the massive support of central banks. This maintains the yield of the German and Japanese 10-year sovereign bond at the microscopic level of respectively 0.16 % and -0.05 %. And if the US equivalent yield rose to 1.83 %, we are still far from the 2.25 % level of the beginning of the year.Read more...

22.09.2016

A SURPRISE IS COMING

The aggressive monetary policies of the central banks of the United Kingdom, Japan and Europe, coupled with the fact that the market expects the FED to take its time before raising again its benchmark interest, continue to favor risk taking among investors.Read more...

16.08.2016

THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

Upset by being wrong on the Brexit outcome, investors reacted by selling equities. Thus, EUR 19.2 billion were withdrawn from European equity funds in June, i.e. the highest level in a year. But insofar as the consequences of the vote are limited in the short-term (except for investments in the UK), but important in the long run for the impact it will have in the European Union, once the bad mood was overcome, markets regained their footing.Read more...

09.06.2016

And there was a great calm

1. May was a month in which no sector shined either for better or for worse. 2. Equities moved up during the month but remained below the level reached in mid-April : in Europe 1.2 % for the Euro-Stoxx 50 and 2.2 % for the Dax; in the US 1.5 % for the S&P500 and 3.6 % for the Nasdaq. However, Japan with -2 % for the Nilkkei 225 and -3.7 % for the MSCI Emerging Markets in USD were lower.Read more...

15.05.2016

FLOWMAGEDDON

1. April confirmed the recovery of financial markets after the difficult start of the year. 2. And junk bonds benefited the most. Indeed, the yield for the Bloomberg USD High Yield Corporate Bond index, which peaked at above 10 % in mid-February and was still at 8.45 % one month ago, decreased to 7.6 % at the end of April. This is a level 0.4 % lower than the average of the past 12 months.Read more...

10.04.2016

OF BUNNIES AND FOXES

1. Thanks to the FED’s announcement that it now planned to raise its interest rates only twice this year, the US stock market rose strongly in March with an increase of the S&P 500 index of 6.6 %, ending the quarter up 0.8 %. For the Nasdaq the numbers were respectively +6.9 % and -2.7 %.Read more...

09.03.2016

TO DO THE "UNTHINKABLE"

If markets calmed down a bit in February, it was mainly because the US stock market performed better than the others. Indeed, if European stock indexes have lost around 25 % of their value since their April 2015 peak, the S&P 500 index is currently down only by about 10 % from its May 2015 peak.Read more...

09.02.2016

REALITY OR A BAD DREAM ?

With the second worst beginning of year in Wall Street's history, January 2016 just ensured itself a place of honor in the statistics. And for investors the fall of 5.1 % for the S&P 500 index revives the painful memories of January 2008 (-6.1 %).Read more...

09.01.2016

THE GREAT CONFUSION

Regardless of the economic environment, some situations reappear regularly enough in financial markets to attract attention and even more so as it seems that they cannot be explained in a rational way.Read more...

08.12.2015

LIFTOFF

1. It appears that 2015 ended well ahead of the calendar year for most hedge funds as the specialists believe that they have substantially reduced their positions already at the beginning of November, whereas they usually only do so around mid-December. With multiple and unpredictable moves up and down in markets, it has been a difficult year for them.Read more...

02.11.2015

HALF FULL OR HALF EMPTY ?

1. October enabled European stock markets to recover more than half of their August and September losses with for example the strong increase of 12.3 % for the DAX and 10.2 % for the Euro Stoxx50. And in the US, where the decline was milder, the indexes are again quite close to their highest of the year, thanks to a rise of 8.3 % for the S&P500 and of 9.4 % for the Nasdaq. In Japan the Nikkei 225 climbed 9.75 %.Read more...

12.10.2015

CENTRAL BANKS ARE FAILING

September was a volatile month with stock markets behaving as if they were on a roller coaster. Concerns persist in particular with respect to the evolution of Chinese growth and the impact on countries that supply raw materials to China.Read more...

01.09.2015

A DISILLUSIONED LOVE

So, the expected stock markets' correction occurred a little earlier than forecasted since most of the analysts expected it in September with the first scheduled increase of the FED’s prime rate.Read more...

03.08.2015

FROM MONETARY UNITY TO POLITICAL DISUNITY

In our view, the main event in July was the new and sharp fall of commodities of 10.8 % according to the Thompson Reuters Core Commodity Index, obviously led by oil : -21.5 %. But this drop occurred in all sectors, with, for example, -19.3 % for wheat, -10.8 % for copper and -7.5 % for gold.Read more...

01.07.2015

SKIRTS AND THE STOCK MARKET

During the month, European stock markets fluctuated mainly according to the evolution of the Greek crisis and ended down 4.1 % for both the DAX and the Euro-Stoxx50. In the United States, the Nasdaq reached a new record in June, but also finished down 1.6 %, while the S&P500 lost 2.1 %.Read more...

01.06.2015

ACTIVE OR PASSIVE

The main event in May was the rise of more than 0.5 % of bond yields, both in Europe and the United States.Read more...

01.05.2015

FROM DEFLATION TO HYPERINFLATION ?

April was quiet until the two last days of the month, when the announcement of a mediocre US growth for the first quarter of 0.2 % led to profit taking, beginning with the dollar, which fell from 1.0730 to 1.1225 against euro, while the greenback stayed practically unchanged against yen at 119.40.Read more...

01.04.2015

SO MUCH WATER, SO LITTLE TO DRINK

A hat-trick for Europe : after January and February, March was also quite favorable to Eurozone's equities : +3.0 % for the Euro-Stoxx 50 and +5.1 % for the Dax. Conversely - and as it was also already the case since the beginning of the year - the US was relatively disappointing : -1.7 % for the S&P500 and -1.2 % for the Nasdaq.Read more...

02.03.2015

TO RAISE OR NOT TO RAISE ?

Compared to January, the month was less volatile, with in particular buoyant equity markets. This enabled both the S&P500 and the Nasdaq - respectively up 5.6 % and 7.1 % - to recover their losses from the beginning of the year.Read more...

02.02.2015

DEFLATION, SWISS STYLE

It is customary to consider that January sets the tone for the year and if this should be the case, 2015 will accordingly be particularly volatile.Read more...

30.12.2014

2015 : ARE WE ALL TE BECOME JAPANESE ?

Looking only at the US stock market, the year was good, exceeding our expectation that by the end of 2014 the S&P would be at 2014. This would already have represented a respectable increase. But in the end, the result was even better, since being far above 2050, the index is up more than 10 %. And the technology index - the Nasdaq - had a similar performance.Read more...

01.12.2014

50 %

If, during the entire month of October, the decline in European equities seemed to herald a more widespread downward move, the dramatic announcement in the last day of that month by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) of a significant increase in its quantitative easing policy (QE) changed investors’ perception.Read more...

03.11.2014

COMMODITIES BEAR MARKET = RECESSION ?

October has been so far the most exciting month of the year, with ample daily movements.Read more...

01.10.2014

THE UGLY LITTLE YELLOW DUCK

The economic figures published in August in China reported a sharp slowdown in the economy to the point that the growth target of 7.5 % for 2014 may not be achieved. This prompted the central bank to inject USD 81 billion of cash in the five largest banks of the country to facilitate credit. This is the equivalent of a drop of 0.5 % of the base rate.Read more...

01.09.2014

WHEN GOOD NEWS BECOMES BAD NEWS

The stock markets’ fall, which had gained momentum during the last week of July, continued into the first week of August to the point where it was possible to consider that, for the first time in two years, a market correction (i.e. a decrease of more than 10 %) could happen in the US.Read more...

04.08.2014

THE DECISION MAKER

If during most of the month the deterioration of the political situation did not have a negative impact, the accumulation of bad news finally led in the last week to a stock market sell-off, in particular in Europe were the Dax was down 4.3 % and the Euro-Stoxx50 3.5 %. In the US the S&P dropped 1.5 % and the Nasdaq 0.9 %.Read more...

01.07.2014

ACCELERATION IN SIGHT

Wall Street’s new norm : "a completely dead day". This is how the Wall Street Journal recently headlined regarding the very low volatility in the financial markets and which can be illustrated by the fact that for the S&P 500 it is currently at a level only reached in 1 % of the market's trading days since 1970.Read more...

02.06.2014

THE WIDOW MAKER

Fortunately, the World Cup is starting as traders are really bored; nothing much is happening and volume which was already weak continues to decline.Read more...

01.05.2014

5 YEARS LATER

Alternating between up and down phases, April was at the end a month without major changes, as illustrated by the fact that the FTSE World Index was down 0.80 %.Read more...

01.04.2014

THE METAL WITH A PHD IN ECONOMICS

Two events essentially influenced the behavior of investors in March : the crisis around Crimea and the slow-down more and more visible of the Chinese economy.Read more...

03.03.2014

WHO'S WRONG ?

For financial markets, February was a rather quiet month and even boring for traders.Read more...

03.02.2014

2014 IN 2014 ?

After starting the year with a continuation of the rise of developed countries’ equities, the end of the month was characterized by investors suffering an anxiety attackRead more...

30.12.2013

2014 : THE MOMENT OF TRUTH

12 months ago, at the end of 2012, we wrote that "the present bull move (of equities), which started over a year ago, has obtained no respect from investors, who rather tend to view it as an eccentricity considering the world's problems. However, this usually indicates that the present trend should not only continue, but that it could even accelerate in a rather surprising manner”.Read more...

02.12.2013

CAUTION OR AGRESSIVENESS ?

If there are months where until the last minute it is unclear whether they will be positive or not, this was never the case in November for US stocks, as the rise was steady, with little setbacks.Read more...

01.11.2013

INVESTING ON ONLY ONE LEG

The FED's decision in September not to stop its purchases of securities continued to positively influence equities in October since all major indices, except one, are positive for the month : Nasdaq : +3.9 %, S&P : +4.5 %, DAX : +5.1 %, Euro-Stoxx50 : +6.0 % and emerging countries index in USD : +4.2 %.Read more...

01.10.2013

JOBS, JOBS AND JOBS

As we enter the last quarter it appears that 2013 will be a good vintage for the stock market.Read more...

02.09.2013

ONE QUADRILLION

For the first time since the events that led to what economists are starting to call "the Great Recession", August was a relatively quiet month, even if potentially dangerous tensions continued to appear.Read more...

02.08.2013

A TOP IN VIEW ?

After June’s sharp market correction, July saw a strong recovery following the reassuring words of Mr. Bernanke indicating that the end of the quantitative easing policy by the Fed would be gradual and based on the evolution of the economic situation.Read more...

10.07.2013

FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELT

Volatility which app2eared in the bond market in May increased in June. This can be illustrated by the fact that the 10-year US government bond yield, which was at 2.13 % at the beginning of the month, moved down to 2 % on June 6th, before strongly increasing to 2.61 % on June 25th, to end the month at 2.49 %.Read more...

03.06.2013

THE LAST ASSET CLASS

It looked like equities were going to have an exuberant month until May 22, when, after an increase of nearly 90 % since June 2012, the Nikkei dropped 7.2 %Read more...

01.05.2013

FLYING BLIND

The main event in April for the financial markets was the 15 % fall of gold on April 12 and 15, i.e. a total drop of 30 % from the September 5, 2011 peak of USD1'921.- /ounce. And not surprisingly, among commodities, silver had the worst performance of the month, down 14.7 % while at USD 1'477, gold ended April down 7.5 %Read more...

02.04.2013

CONVERTIBLE INTO DUST

March confirmed what we already knew. In the United States the latest economic data shows that the situation is improving; Europe remains stuck in its crisis; Asian countries are beginning to suffer from the yen’s decline and the emerging world is still lagging behind...Read more...

01.03.2013

THE COBRA EFFECT

After a good start of the year, February was a consolidation month with no major events, even if the Italian elections added some spice...Read more...

01.02.2013

DISCREPANCIES

Read more...